Heading to the Emirates level — a first for Atlético this season
The first leg ended 1-1. Gyökeres converted a penalty in the 44th minute to put Arsenal ahead, and Álvarez equalised from the spot in the 56th. Both goals came from penalties — neither side managed to score from open play. Griezmann struck the crossbar, Álvarez curled a free kick just wide, and Lookman had a chance saved by Raya, but Atlético could not find a winner despite dominating the second half.
Looking back across this season's knockout stage, this is the first time Atlético face a second leg away from home without a lead. In the play-offs, they drew the first leg 3-3 away at Club Brugge before winning 4-1 at the Metropolitano. Against Tottenham in the round of 16, they took a 5-2 advantage from the home leg before travelling to London. In the quarter-finals against Barcelona, a 2-0 away win in the first leg gave them breathing room for the return fixture at home, which they lost 1-2 but won 3-2 on aggregate. In every case, they held a lead or had home advantage for the second leg. Travelling to the Emirates at 1-1 on aggregate is uncharted territory this season.
Simeone's teams have been here before over the years, but this campaign has been defined by managing leads and defending margins. Now the task is different: they need at least one goal. The away goals rule has been abolished, so a 0-0 draw would send the tie to extra time and potentially penalties. Yet spending 90 minutes absorbing pressure is unlikely to be enough to seize the initiative. Going forward with purpose is the more realistic approach.
In October, Atlético were dismantled 4-0 at this same ground during the league phase — their heaviest defeat of the season. That team and this one are fundamentally different, but the fact that Arsenal at the Emirates are a formidable opponent remains unchanged.
Arsenal's unbeaten Champions League run and the questions up front
Arsenal are unbeaten across the entire Champions League this season, home and away, from the league phase through to the semi-finals. At the Emirates specifically, they have won five and drawn one of their six matches. Defensive solidity and set-piece intensity have been central to their progress.
There are, however, uncertainties in attack. Saka returned to the starting lineup against Fulham on May 2 and was sharp in the first half before being withdrawn at half-time as a precaution ahead of Tuesday. Arteta indicated that the pain that had been limiting him has gone, and he is in contention to start. Eze also started against Fulham and showed no fitness concerns.
Ødegaard, however, was left out of the Fulham squad entirely. He has been troubled by injuries this season, and a knee problem now puts his availability for the second leg in doubt. He started the first leg but was replaced in the 57th minute. Arteta said the club would do everything to have him ready for Tuesday, but his status remains uncertain. Havertz has not featured since before the first leg. A muscle injury has kept him sidelined, and reports differ on whether he will be fit. His fitness has been inconsistent throughout the season, and even if he plays, his match sharpness may be limited. Calafiori has already returned, starting against Fulham. Timber and Merino are expected to miss out.
Gyökeres has five Champions League goals this season and won and converted the first-leg penalty. He is a threat from set pieces and in aerial duels — a player Atlético's defenders must account for across the full 90 minutes. Rice and Zubimendi form a structurally sound midfield partnership, and if Atlético are overrun in that area, they risk spending too long pinned in their own half.
Arteta's side also possess set-piece commitment and an appetite for physical duels on every 50-50 ball. Given the overlap in style with Simeone's approach, the midfield battle could become a war of attrition.
Control the midfield, and the counter-attacking route opens up
If Atlético are to score, simply launching balls forward will not be enough. They need to win the ball back in midfield and create spells of possession; otherwise, their attacks will be isolated. If they avoid being outclassed in the centre of the pitch, they can prevent Arsenal from monopolising the ball. That is the baseline.
Johnny Cardoso is central to this plan. According to UEFA's official statistics, he has played nine Champions League matches this season for a total of 471 minutes, with a pass accuracy of 79.7% and zero bookings. He started alongside Koke in the first leg and provided stability in both ball circulation and defensive intensity. He has the stamina to last deep into matches, and compared to the early part of the season, his decision-making in possession appears to have improved.
Barrios is likely to miss out due to a muscle problem. Without him, the Cardoso-Koke pairing from the first leg is the most probable midfield combination. Baena could also be an option from the start. Another possibility is shifting Llorente into midfield. He started on the right side in the first leg, fulfilling a defensive role. If he moves centrally, the vacated right flank could be filled by Pubill or Molina, altering the dynamic of how Atlético connect with their forwards.
The key is to avoid being second-best against Rice and Zubimendi and to transition quickly into the final third. If those two elements come together, the counter-attacking route becomes a genuine pathway to goal.
Molina's strike power and how to breach a defence that does not break easily
Arsenal's back line is high quality. With Saliba and Gabriel at the centre, straightforward combinations and ordinary crosses are likely to be repelled. This is not a defence that yields under sustained pressure alone.
That makes counter-attacks from midfield turnovers one of the most realistic avenues for scoring — finishing chances before Arsenal's defensive shape can reset. But even in phases when Atlético have the ball in advanced positions, the question is whether they have tools to threaten from different angles when central options are blocked.
This is where Molina's attacking output becomes relevant. His long-range shooting can bypass a packed defensive line and test Raya directly, and his crossing offers pace and curve at a high level. These are not only counter-attacking weapons — when play stalls in central areas during sustained attacks, he can provide an alternative route from the right. He has two goals and two assists in La Liga this season, and he hit the post from distance in the recent win at Valencia. The mere existence of that option forces Arsenal's defence to cover more ground.
If Giuliano's hip discomfort limits his effectiveness, pushing Molina into a higher position looks like a viable adjustment. Against a defence of this quality, having shots and crosses arriving from unusual angles can make the difference between creating half-chances and creating clear ones.
The timing of Lookman's introduction is another focal point. He started the first leg and had a clear opportunity in the 74th minute that Raya saved. His pace and dribbling ability can shift the momentum even from the bench.
Álvarez and Giuliano's fitness will shape the team's structure
Based on reports as of May 4, Álvarez's ankle injury — sustained when he fell awkwardly under Rice late in the first leg — is not considered serious. Simeone said after the match that he hoped it was nothing significant, and multiple reports from Spain suggest he is expected to play. Giuliano took a knock to his hip area after colliding with Hincapié early in the first leg and was withdrawn at half-time. He is expected to be available, though his condition may influence his positioning and role. Sørloth felt hamstring discomfort during the first-leg warm-up and was unable to feature. He is expected to return to the squad, but whether he starts or comes off the bench is unclear.
Barrios and Giménez are both likely to miss out with muscle issues. Nico González is also a doubt due to injury. Hancko started the first leg and conceded the penalty, and although a minor knock has been reported, he remains the most likely starter at centre-back. There are no suspensions for Atlético.
For the Valencia match on May 2, which was also Simeone's 1,000th game as a manager, the coaching staff rested the majority of the first-choice squad. All eleven starters were changed, and youngsters Iker Luque and Miguel Cubo scored the goals in a 2-0 win. The intent to channel every resource into Tuesday's second leg was clear.
Atlético's first-leg lineup was: Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Ruggeri; Johnny Cardoso, Koke; Giuliano, Lookman; Álvarez, Griezmann. The base structure is likely to be maintained, with Molina's deployment depending on Giuliano's condition.
For Griezmann, this is his final Champions League season with Atlético. His move to Orlando City has been confirmed for this summer. If Atlético advance, the final in Budapest would be his last Champions League appearance in red and white. If they are eliminated, this match at the Emirates could be his farewell to the competition. He was named UEFA's Player of the Match in the first leg after striking the crossbar and driving the team's second-half resurgence. Ten years after missing a penalty in the 2016 Champions League final, the road to another final comes down to one more match.
A different team from the one that lost 4-0 in October
October 21, league phase matchday three. Atlético were torn apart 4-0 at this same Emirates Stadium — the worst defeat of their season. The team was still finding its shape, and the result reflected how far there was to go.
More than six months on, the picture is different. The winter transfer window brought Lookman, Vargas, and Mendoza, expanding the options in attack and midfield. Cardoso, who had arrived in the summer, has grown into a dependable presence in European competition. The tactical maturity that followed carried Atlético to a 2-0 win at Barcelona's ground in the quarter-final first leg and through to the semi-finals. This is not a record built solely on defensive resilience.
This is the match of the season — the one that demands the highest level of focus from the stands and the pitch alike. Not a game to protect a lead, but one where Atlético must go and score away from home. It is the newest challenge of their Champions League campaign. Kick-off is Tuesday, May 5 at 20:00 BST (Wednesday, May 6, 04:00 JST) at the Emirates Stadium. Daniel Siebert will referee.
Pressing intensity and where the ball is won in midfield, Molina's attacking involvement and shooting positions, dealing with Arsenal's set pieces, and Simeone's substitution strategy in the closing stages — there is a great deal to watch for. And every moment of Griezmann's Champions League journey. The winners will face either PSG or Bayern Munich (PSG lead 5-4 from the first leg; the second leg is on May 6 at the Allianz Arena) in the final on May 30 at the Puskás Aréna in Budapest.