Two from outside the box: Atlético prise open Málaga on opening night

An xG of 0.92, and two shots far better than that

Atlético Madrid opened the season with a 2-0 win over Málaga. Nothing changed on the scoreboard until the 70th minute. Fifteen shots, seven of them from outside the penalty area, and the three chances FotMob logged as big ones all went begging: 0.92 xG.

Against that 0.92, the xGOT reads 2.64. Where xG measures how likely a shot is to go in given everything that led up to it, xGOT takes only the shots that hit the target and reworks the scoring probability using where in the goalmouth the ball arrived. The jump from 0.92 to 2.64 says the build-up to the shooting was poor and the shots themselves were exceptional.

At the back, Atlético gave up one shot on target and it came late on. Jan Oblak did make a double stop just before half-time, but the whole passage was ruled offside and it does not even register as a save. What nagged afterwards was the attack that got carried by the clean sheet.

Málaga, back in the top flight after eight years, sat in a low block from the first whistle, and Atlético never found a way round it.

Diego Simeone said afterwards that his side grew into the game and that "the work in the first half was very important to wear them down", adding that the players who came on after the break were the ones who resolved it. The wearing down did tell. But what happened on 70 and 85 minutes was not a defence pulled apart; it was two substitutes doing it on their own.

Kang-in Lee's left foot and Álex Baena's free kick

On 70 minutes Kang-in Lee took the ball on the right, carried it inside and swung his left foot from outside the box. It started with Dávid Hancko switching play to the far side. This was his first competitive match since arriving from Paris Saint-Germain. Three shots in 33 minutes, an xG of 0.13 against an xGOT of 0.89. At least in this match, the numbers reflect his ability to pick his spot and hit it.

It has been a while since this side had a left-footer on the right. We have watched plenty of nights where Atlético camp in the opposition half and still cannot score, and those are exactly the nights when you want someone who can shake off a marker and finish from range. The more stuck they get against a low block, the sooner his name should come up.

Baena's free kick on 85 went into the top left corner. Into the Calderón gave him 8.5, the highest mark in the side. Two chances created, two accurate crosses and three corners in 33 minutes. He also looked keener to get on the ball centrally than he did last season. Simeone said the goal was "no accident: he put it in the corner", and asked whether he wanted Baena to become a new Griezmann, he answered, "I am not looking for someone like Griezmann; they are all different."

Arnau Ortiz's cutbacks, and a 16-year-old in the XI

The starting eleven looked a lot like the pre-season line-ups. With the World Cup returnees not yet up to speed that is understandable, but it was still a strikingly young side for an opening day.

Arnau Ortiz created three chances and completed three crosses in 57 minutes. Atlético completed five crosses all night, so three of them were his. The cutbacks from inside the box are there in the numbers as well as in the memory: on 28 minutes one of his crosses found Hancko on the left of the area and turned into a shot. What is not there is beating a man: FotMob has him at zero successful take-ons and two duels won from six. Whether dribbling is genuinely a weapon of his will take a few more matches to work out.

Dani Martínez, a centre-back by trade, played the left for what was only his second competitive appearance for the first team. Four successful dribbles, eight recoveries, 88 touches. There were moments in pre-season that did not inspire much confidence; here there was barely a loose pass in a dangerous area.

Jorge Domínguez started in defence at 16 years and 241 days. He is reported to be the club's youngest debutant in a competitive fixture within the records that can be checked; the previous mark belonged to Keko Gontán, who came on in the Copa del Rey in 2008 at 16 years and 307 days. The performance itself was a struggle. He was booked on 37 minutes and could easily have seen a second before the break, and Simeone took him off for Marcos Llorente at half-time.

In midfield Pablo Barrios was his usual self: 51 completed passes, three interceptions, eight recoveries and not one foul. He kept picking off the moments where Málaga were about to break, and he did it without needing to foul. Carrying the ball and linking play, at a high level, week after week.

Lookman had to give more

Julián Álvarez was left out of the squad; reports in Spain say Simeone judged him not quite ready. After the final whistle a section of the stands aimed abusive chants at him, and asked about it Simeone said only, "Very respectful towards our people." Until his future is settled, those chants will come again.

Ademola Lookman, handed the front line, had to give more. Two shots in 90 minutes, both on target, but no chances created and no successful take-ons. He touched the ball four times inside the opposition box and won two duels out of seven. When Kang-in Lee slipped him in on 74 minutes, his shot from the left of the area went straight at Herrero. Into the Calderón gave him 5.0.

Half a season on from his February arrival, he scored four times in 622 La Liga minutes last term. One was a penalty, but the rate itself is not bad. With Álvarez's future in the news, the man who ought to be called the leading forward without any of that noise is Lookman. Atlético will face plenty of games this season where, against a deep defence, they need their striker to hold the ball up centrally. Whether Lookman can become that focal point is one of the things I want to see from him.

Ratings

Starters

Substitutes

ItC ratings via Into the Calderón; FotMob ratings via FotMob.

Villarreal come to the Metropolitano in four days

Next is Villarreal at home on Sunday 23 August. Asked whether Álvarez and the other World Cup returnees would be available, Simeone answered "I don't know" and closed the press conference there. Alejandro Grimaldo stayed on the bench all night. In our preview we wrote that, without another signing, the left side would ride on his form all season. That player spent the opener sitting down.

Beating a promoted side is not something to celebrate for its own sake; what mattered was the substance. Five crosses found a team-mate in 90 minutes. Eight shots came from inside the box and none went in, and La Liga's own data logs zero clear chances scored. Settling a low block with two strikes from outside the area is not something you can do every week. The next time Atlético meet a side set up the same way, the thing to watch is whether they can score from inside the box.