If Cardoso tightens up the midfield, can Atlético keep hold of the game at home?

This Madrid side is not overwhelming anyone, and Atlético have every chance of winning

La Liga matchday seven brings Real Madrid to the Metropolitano, kicking off at 16:15 CEST (15:15 BST) on Sunday 20 September. After six games Madrid and Betis sit second and third on 15 points, and we are fourth on 13. Win, and we go above Madrid in the table. It will be the first time Mourinho and Simeone have met in a league derby since April 2013.

Madrid may have won five of their six league games, but away from home they have beaten Espanyol 2-1, lost 1-0 at Betis, and needed Espí off the bench beyond the 90th minute to win 3-2 at Elche after letting a two-goal lead slip. Starting with that Betis game, they have conceded in four matches running. They are not an overwhelming side. We, on the other hand, have won two on the bounce, 3-0 at Anoeta and 4-0 against Osasuna, with the performances to match, 2.05 and 3.97 xG on FotMob. The quality of the last two games has been high, and this is not a team that loses easily at home either. In nine league derbies at the Metropolitano the record is three wins, four draws and two defeats, and Madrid's last league win here was in September 2022. I accept that Madrid have the better individuals, but I do not think that means we cannot score. I think there is every chance of winning this.

What I want to avoid is being pinned back at home and never getting hold of the game. I do not think Simeone will pick a starting XI with that kind of game in mind either. What that needs is a midfield that can defend and keep the ball, and with Barrios out, the choice of partner to take that on is where this game will be decided.

Cardoso is the key player, and I want to see the Osasuna shape again in the derby

My key player is Johnny Cardoso. Against Osasuna he was making his first competitive start of the season, and he played well. In 85 minutes his 17 passes into the final third were the most in the team, the one-two with Grimaldo for the first goal was his, and so was the through ball to Baena for the fourth. What I liked more than the numbers was his positioning. While Grimaldo was inside, he drifted left and filled the space that had opened up. With Cardoso covering for him that well, Grimaldo's strengths were able to come through.

I want to see that again in the derby. In transition there will probably be moments when Grimaldo carries the ball and Cardoso looks after the space he has left on the left. The shape does not have to be a back four. At Anoeta it started as a back three, with Hancko on the left of it and Grimaldo at left wing-back, and from there Grimaldo scored a penalty and added an assist. Against Osasuna he was the left-back in a four, and the cut-back for the first goal came from him. A back three like the one at Anoeta lets both of them play, and with Hancko on the left of it, Grimaldo has cover behind him. If it is a four, the Spanish projected line-ups are split between Hancko and Grimaldo at left-back. Either way, I think at home the weight goes on the attacking side and Grimaldo starts on the left. In the league this season Hancko has been dribbled past twice and Grimaldo five times, but the midfield and the players ahead of him can help with the defending, and in the Anoeta shape Hancko is behind him. Simeone said the same in his press conference: "We obviously need to help him on the defensive side, and he needs to step up his effort."

Whether Cardoso starts, I do not know. The Spanish line-ups are split on the midfield pairing as well. Madrid are a side that go straight forward the moment they win the ball, and Güler or Mbappé could drop into the space that opens once Koke has been drawn out. The questions are who fills that, and whether the ball can be won back in behind on the left. If Cardoso can keep the midfield competitive for 90 minutes while holding the whole shape in balance, there should be fewer moments when Madrid look a threat.

David starts and Julián comes on after the break, and I am expecting a lot from both

Up front I think David starts and Julián comes off the bench. David's numbers are in good shape as well. Two goals in 98 minutes across two league games, and against Osasuna his six shots and eight touches in the opposition box in 68 minutes were both joint most in the team. He is spending a lot of time high up the pitch and getting involved in the chances. The link-up with those around him is fine too, and right now you trust him to stay calm and finish.

Julián picked up tightness in his quadriceps in training last week and missed two games, and on Saturday he got through a full group session for the first time and was named in the squad. He will be coming back from injury, but the reports were that he has thrown himself into getting back. Romero said: "He is making a huge effort. He is coming back from a small problem he had last week, but I see him very happy, really up for it, training every day to be in this game." At Anfield he played 90 minutes for the first time this season, put all three of his shots on target and set up the opening goal. He was receiving the ball well, so even in limited minutes he can be a threat, and he looks like the piece that keeps the defensive intensity up in the second half as well. Score the winner against Madrid in a home derby and I think the fans' view of him shifts a little. In last season's 5-2 he scored twice, a penalty and a direct free-kick. A decisive performance in this one would be a way of making amends for the summer saga, so that is what I am hoping for.

The fear is going behind early and getting caught on the counter once everyone pushes forward

Simeone said in his press conference: "They possibly have an even better transition than ours, much more vertical. When they win the ball back, their first option is Kylian Mbappé, their second option is Vinícius Júnior." Mbappé has seven goals in six league games and takes more shots per 90 minutes than anyone in the league. Concede early, push forward to get it back, and that quality up front hits us on the counter for a second. That is what scares me most. Romero said of them: "You have to be switched on for the whole game, you cannot give them a metre, because they are players who at times look like they are not there, and in two or three minutes..." His example was Mbappé in the 2022 World Cup final: "we had dominated them for 80 minutes and they turn up in the last ten and score two goals out of nothing to change the game". All six goals we have conceded in the league this season have come in the second half. Stating the obvious, but staying fully focused for the whole game, without a single lapse, is the bare minimum for taking this one.

A word on both squads. Barrios has a myofascial injury in his right leg and Sørloth a muscle injury, so both are left out, and both are expected back after the international break. Madrid have Rodrygo, Militão and Mendy out long-term, and neither side has anyone suspended. The only splits in the Spanish projected line-ups are Güler or Diomande on the right, and who partners Valverde in midfield.

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Win this and it will be back-to-back home league derby wins for the first time since 1976-77, and the first time it has happened at the Metropolitano. After the game comes a three-week break; the next league match is Alavés on Saturday 10 October, and Manchester United visit in the Champions League on Tuesday the 13th.